Maitland Political/AMO Monitor – 11 October 2018

11th October 2018

Good morning,

“Hell Week” continues for Theresa May. This afternoon Theresa May is expected to brief a select few Cabinet ministers on the status of the Brexit negotiations. She desperately needs their support.  May is facing coordinated pressure from the European Research Group and the DUP. The DUP is threatening to vote against the Budget, Brexit legislation, and all other government legislation should May ignore their red lines over Brexit. A meeting with Michel Barnier yesterday has reportedly convinced the DUP that the emerging Irish backstop compromise between the UK and EU will ignore the party’s concerns. Last night DUP MPs abstained in a vote on the Agriculture Bill. Convention, and the spirit of Parliament, indicates that a Government that loses a vote on its Budget should call a general election. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act means May would not be forced to do so. Certainly the new threat makes the Parliamentary arithmetic much harder for Government whips.

Driving the Day

  • The DUP has threatened to sever their confidence deal and vote down the Conservative’s budget and any Brexit deal if the proposed Irish backstop remains in its current form.
  • Theresa May has said private companies and public sector employers will be forced to reveal their ethnicity pay gap.
  • The Times reports that Ministers have been warned that 25 of the most important plans for a no-deal Brexit face major delays while 13 of them have been labelled “off track”.
  • The FCA has published detailed plans for the oversight of EU financial firms operating in the UK after Brexit. Its plans include measures to mitigate different passporting regimes.

On Manoeuvres

  • Michel Barnier and Dominic Raab are expected to meet in Brussels.
  • Philip Hammond represents the UK at a gathering of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in Bali, Indonesia.
  • Sajid Javid attends a meeting of ministers at the EU justice and home affairs council.
  • Jeremy Corbyn gives a speech in Bristol to mark Black History Month, announcing plans to improve the teaching of black British history.
  • Tougher standards are needed to clean up Britain’s air pollution, according to a report by the IPPR think tank.
  • 10am A Lords EU committee takes evidence on the future of UK-EU transport arrangements.

Westminster Bubble

House of Commons

  • 9.30am Transport questions
  • 10.30am Business questions to the leader of the House
  • Victims Strategy debate

House of Lords

  • Debate on the impact of the Good Friday agreement of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
  • Debate on proposals for greater employee shareholding and participation in corporate governance.
  • Debate on the impact on the arts of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.