Maitland Political/AMO Monitor – 14 September 2018

14th September 2018
Good morning
The government published their second tranche of no-deal technical notices to businesses yesterday but this morning the headlines have been dominated by a leak from the Cabinet’s no-deal meeting. Mark Carney warned Cabinet that a chaotic no-deal could lead to a collapse in sterling, soaring inflation, rapid rise interest rates and a 35 per cent fall in house prices over three years. The government is fighting fire on this leak, it is also under attack from the British Chambers of Commerce, which accused the government of withholding the release of key no-deal planning information until after the Conservative conference; while the CBI described a no-deal for business as the equivalent of being hit by a sledgehammer.
Amid the maelstrom a new Conservative faction has formed. Back-bencher Simon Hart has launched the “Brexit Delivery Group”. The pressure group seeks to support the prime minister in a middle way through Brexit, rejecting both extremes of the party. So far it has 60 members. While last night the de facto figurehead of another faction, Boris Johnson, accepted the Irving Kristol Award from the American Enterprise Institute. In an on-stage interview Johnson said the biggest mistake of his career was believing he could deal with Vladimir Putin, threatening to sue the Salisbury suspects. He also revealed his top priority would be tackle social mobility in the style of Margaret Thatcher if he were to become prime minister.

Driving the Day
  • A no-deal Brexit would cause house prices to fall by 35 per cent over three years according to Mark Carney.
  • George Freeman, the former chairman of Theresa May’s policy board, has urged the prime minister to leave after the UK leaves the EU next year.
  • The Treasury is reportedly considering extending its plastics tax to plastic soft-drinks and milkshake cups.
  • Vice Cable has suggested the Liberal Democrats could change their name to attract 18 MPs from other parties.
  • France’s European Affairs Minister, Nathalie Loiseau, told Londoners yesterday that if no agreement was reached, it was possible that Eurostar trains would not be allowed onto French soil.

On Manoeuvres 
  • Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, attends a meeting of G20 trade ministers in Argentina.
  • Tony Blair addresses a conference on European strategy in Ukraine.

Westminster Bubble
Both Houses are in recess until 9 October.